Guillaume JHA, Arshad M, Jakeman AJ, Jalava M, Kummu M (2016) Robust Discrimination between Uncertain Management Alternatives by Iterative Reflection on Crossover Point Scenarios: Principles, Design and Implementations. Environmental Modelling & Software 83: 326–43. doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.04.005 When comparing environmental management alternatives, there is a need to assess the effect of uncertainty…
Potential surprise theory as a theoretical foundation for scenario planning (2016)
Derbyshire, J. (2016) Potential surprise theory as a theoretical foundation for scenario planning, Technological Forecasting & Social Change (in press), June 2016, http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162516300671 Despite some recent progress, scenario planning’s development as an academic discipline remains constrained by the perception it is solely a practical tool for thinking about the future,…
Augmenting the intuitive logics scenario planning method for a more comprehensive analysis of causation (2016)
Derbyshire, G. Wright, Augmenting the intuitive logics scenario planning method for a more comprehensive analysis of causation, International Journal of Forecasting (in press), May 2016, doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2016.01.004 This paper shows that, in practice, the standard approach to scenario planning, known as ‘intuitive logics’, is overly focused on uncovering causes of one…
An uncertain future, deep uncertainty, scenarios, robustness and adaptation: How do they fit together? (2016)
H.R. Maier, J.H.A. Guillaume, H. van Delden, G.A. Riddell, M. Haasnoot, J.H. Kwakkel, An uncertain future, deep uncertainty, scenarios, robustness and adaptation: How do they fit together?, Environmental Modelling & Software, Volume 81, July 2016, Pages 154-164, ISSN 1364-8152, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.03.014 A highly uncertain future due to changes in climate,…
Defense Resource Planning Under Uncertainty: An Application of Robust Decision Making to Munitions Mix Planning (2016)
Lempert, Robert J., Drake Warren, Ryan Henry, Robert W. Button, Jonathan Klenk, Kate Giglio, Defense Resource Planning Under Uncertainty, An Application of Robust Decision Making to Munitions Mix Planning, Santa Monica, Calif,: RAND Corporation, RR-1112-OSD, 2016. http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1112.html Today’s defense resource planners face unprecedented uncertainty. The planning processes currently used to…
The implications, challenges and benefits of a complexity-orientated Futures Studies
Derbyshire, J. (2016) The implications, challenges and benefits of a complexity-orientated Futures Studies, Futures 77, 45-55. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328715300136 Complexity science is increasingly cited as an essential component of a Futures Studies (FS) capable of assisting with the wide-ranging and complex societal problems of the 21st century. Yet, the exact implications of complexity science…
The Critical Role of History in Scenario Thinking: Augmenting Causal Analysis within the Intuitive Logics Scenario Development Methodology (2016)
Bradfield, R., Derbyshire, J. & Wright, G. (2016) The Critical Role of History in Scenario Thinking: Augmenting Causal Analysis within the Intuitive Logics Scenario Development Methodology. Futures 77, 56-66. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S001632871530046X The historian Eric Hobsbawm stated that ‘The safest empirical generalization about history is still that nobody heeds its obvious lessons much’. Whether…
Policy neutrality and uncertainty: An info-gap perspective (2015)
Yakov Ben-Haim, Policy neutrality and uncertainty: An info-gap perspective, Intelligence and National Security, published online 18.12.2015. Reducing uncertainty is a central goal of intelligence analysis. ‘Reducing uncertainty’ can mean (1) Reduce ignorance or ambiguity or potential for surprise in describing situations or intentions, or (2) Reduce adverse impacts of ignorance,…
Dealing with uncertainty in strategic decision-making (2015)
Yakov Ben-Haim, 2015, Dealing with uncertainty in strategic decision-making, Parameters, US Army War College Quarterly, 45(3) Autumn 2015. Strategic uncertainty is the disparity between what one knows, and what one needs to know in order to make a responsible decision. Strategic uncertainty permeates defense decision-making. Strategic planners must identify the…
Governing the future? The potential of adaptive delta management to contribute to governance capabilities for dealing with the wicked problem of climate change adaptation
Dewulf, A., & Termeer, C. J. A. M. (2015). Governing the future? The potential of adaptive delta management to contribute to governance capabilities for dealing with the wicked problem of climate change adaptation. Journal of Water and Climate Change, jwc2015117. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2015.117 Due to the long term character of the policy…