L. Drouet, V. Bosetti & M. Tavoni. Selection of climate policies under the uncertainties in the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC, Nature Climate Change 5, 937–940 (2015) doi:10.1038/nclimate2721 Strategies for dealing with climate change must incorporate and quantify all the relevant uncertainties, and be designed to manage the resulting risks….
Societal Ageing in the Netherlands: A Robust System Dynamics Approach (2015)
Auping, WL, Pruyt, E, and Kwakkel, JH (2015), Societal Ageing in the Netherlands: A Robust System Dynamics Approach. Syst. Res, 32, 485–501. doi: 10.1002/sres.2340. Societal ageing is a messy problem with diverging stakeholder views regarding the desirability of policy measures. In this paper, we use a System Dynamics model representing…
Values and uncertainty (2015)
Lempert, R. J. (2015). “Values and uncertainty.” Nature Climate Change. Policymakers know that the risks associated with climate change mean they need to cut greenhouse-gas emissions. But uncertainty surrounding the likelihood of different scenarios makes choosing specific policies difficult.
The effect of near-term policy choices on long-term greenhouse gas transformation pathways (2015)
Isley, S. C., R. J. Lempert, S. W. Popper and R. Vardavas (2015). “The effect of near-term policy choices on long-term greenhouse gas transformation pathways.” Global Environmental Change 34: 147-158. This paper explores the implications of delays (to 2030) in implementing optimal policies for long-term transition pathways to limit climate…
Managing Water Quality in the Face of Uncertainty A Robust Decision Making Demonstration for EPA’s National Water Program (2015)
Fischbach, Jordan R., Robert J. Lempert, Edmundo Molina-Perez, Abdul Ahad Tariq, Melissa L. Finucane and Frauke Hoss. Managing Water Quality in the Face of Uncertainty: A Robust Decision Making Demonstration for EPA’s National Water Program. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2015. http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR720. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), together with…
How Should Robustness Be Defined for Water Systems Planning under Change? (2015)
Herman, J. D., P. M. Reed, H. B. Zeff, and G. W. Characklis (2015), How Should Robustness Be Defined for Water Systems Planning under Change?, Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 04015012. Water systems planners have long recognized the need for robust solutions capable of withstanding deviations from the…