Lempert, Robert J., Drake Warren, Ryan Henry, Robert W. Button, Jonathan Klenk, Kate Giglio, Defense Resource Planning Under Uncertainty, An Application of Robust Decision Making to Munitions Mix Planning, Santa Monica, Calif,: RAND Corporation, RR-1112-OSD, 2016. http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1112.html Today’s defense resource planners face unprecedented uncertainty. The planning processes currently used to…
The implications, challenges and benefits of a complexity-orientated Futures Studies
Derbyshire, J. (2016) The implications, challenges and benefits of a complexity-orientated Futures Studies, Futures 77, 45-55. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328715300136 Complexity science is increasingly cited as an essential component of a Futures Studies (FS) capable of assisting with the wide-ranging and complex societal problems of the 21st century. Yet, the exact implications of complexity science…
The Critical Role of History in Scenario Thinking: Augmenting Causal Analysis within the Intuitive Logics Scenario Development Methodology (2016)
Bradfield, R., Derbyshire, J. & Wright, G. (2016) The Critical Role of History in Scenario Thinking: Augmenting Causal Analysis within the Intuitive Logics Scenario Development Methodology. Futures 77, 56-66. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S001632871530046X The historian Eric Hobsbawm stated that ‘The safest empirical generalization about history is still that nobody heeds its obvious lessons much’. Whether…
Policy neutrality and uncertainty: An info-gap perspective (2015)
Yakov Ben-Haim, Policy neutrality and uncertainty: An info-gap perspective, Intelligence and National Security, published online 18.12.2015. Reducing uncertainty is a central goal of intelligence analysis. ‘Reducing uncertainty’ can mean (1) Reduce ignorance or ambiguity or potential for surprise in describing situations or intentions, or (2) Reduce adverse impacts of ignorance,…
Dealing with uncertainty in strategic decision-making (2015)
Yakov Ben-Haim, 2015, Dealing with uncertainty in strategic decision-making, Parameters, US Army War College Quarterly, 45(3) Autumn 2015. Strategic uncertainty is the disparity between what one knows, and what one needs to know in order to make a responsible decision. Strategic uncertainty permeates defense decision-making. Strategic planners must identify the…
Governing the future? The potential of adaptive delta management to contribute to governance capabilities for dealing with the wicked problem of climate change adaptation
Dewulf, A., & Termeer, C. J. A. M. (2015). Governing the future? The potential of adaptive delta management to contribute to governance capabilities for dealing with the wicked problem of climate change adaptation. Journal of Water and Climate Change, jwc2015117. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2015.117 Due to the long term character of the policy…
Coping with the Wickedness of Public Policy Problems: Approaches for Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty (2016)
Jan H. Kwakkel, Warren E. Walker, and Marjolijn Haasnoot (2016). “Coping with the Wickedness of Public Policy Problems: Approaches for Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty”, Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 142(3), http://ascelibrary.org/doi/abs/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000626 In many planning problems, planners face major challenges in coping with uncertain and changing physical conditions,…
The effect of near-term policy choices on long-term greenhouse gas transformation pathways (2015)
Isley, S. C., R. J. Lempert, S. W. Popper and R. Vardavas (2015), “The effect of near-term policy choices on long-term greenhouse gas transformation pathways.” Global Environmental Change: 34: 147-158. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378015300029 To successfully limit climate change, today’s greenhouse gas mitigation policies should encourage reductions that will continue for decades. History…
Climate targets: Values and uncertainty (2015)
Lempert, R. J. (2015). “Climate targets: Values and uncertainty.” Nature Clim. Change 5(10): 914-915. http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v5/n10/full/nclimate2745.html Climate change presents a risk management challenge. But covering oneself against this risk is significantly more complex than buying insurance for your car or house. In those cases, accurate actuarial tables exist that define the risk, and…
Adaptation to Climate Change in Planning Infrastructure (2015)
Lempert, Robert, Brent Boehlert, David Groves, James E. Neumann, Kenneth M. Strzepek, Oliver Broad, Vignesh Sridharan and R. Cervigni (2015). “Adaptation to Climate Change in Planning Infrastructure”. Enhancing the Climate Resilience of Africa’s Infrastructure. Raffaello Cervigni, Rikard Liden, a. James E. Neumann and R. M. Strzepek. Washington, DC, World Bank,…