Jan H. Kwakkel, Marjolijn Haasnoot, Warren E. Walker (2016) Comparing Robust Decision-Making and Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways for model-based decision support under deep uncertainty, Environmental Modelling & Software 86 (2016) 168-183, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.09.017 A variety of model-based approaches for supporting decision-making under deep uncertainty have been suggested, but they are rarely compared and contrasted. In this…
Incorporating deep uncertainty into the elementary effects method for robust global sensitivity analysis (2016)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380015004949 Internally-consistent scenarios are increasingly used in social–ecological systems modelling to explore how a complex system might be influenced by deeply uncertain future conditions such as climate, population, and demand and supply of resources and energy. The presence of deep uncertainty requires model diagnostic techniques such as global sensitivity analysis…
Allowances for evolving coastal flood risk under uncertain local sea-level rise (2016)
Buchanan, M. K., Kopp, R. E., Oppenheimer, M., & Tebaldi, C. (2015). Allowances for evolving coastal flood risk under uncertain local sea-level rise.Climatic Change, 1-16. URL: http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-016-1664-7 Abstract: Estimates of future flood hazards made under the assumption of stationary mean sea level are biased low due to sea-level rise (SLR). However,…
Adaptation pathways in practice: mapping options and trade-offs for London’s water resources (2016)
Kingsborough, A., Borgomeo, E. and Hall, J. (2016) Adaptation pathways in practice: Mapping options and trade-offs for London’s water resources. Sustainable Cities and Society.http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2016.08.013 London’s ability to remain a world-leading city in an increasingly globalised economy is dependent on it being an efficient, low-risk place to do business and a…
The diversity of socio-economic pathways and CO2 emissions scenarios: Insights from the investigation of a scenarios database (2016)
Guivarch, Céline, Julie Rozenberg, and Vanessa Schweizer. 2016. The diversity of socio-economic pathways and CO2 emissions scenarios: Insights from the investigation of a scenarios database. Environmental Modelling & Software 80, p 336-353. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364815216300706 The new scenario framework developed by the climate change research community rests on the fundamental logic that…
A Matlab toolbox for designing Multi-Objective Optimal Operations of water reservoir systems
M. Giuliani, , Y. Li, A. Cominola, S. Denaro, E. Mason, A. Castelletti. Water reservoir operations have great potential for contributing positively to the development of different socio-economic sectors as well as for reducing the vulnerabilities of water systems caused by changing hydroclimatic and anthropogenic forcing. This motivates the search…
Robust discrimination between uncertain management alternatives by iterative reflection on crossover point scenarios: Principles, design and implementations (2016)
Guillaume JHA, Arshad M, Jakeman AJ, Jalava M, Kummu M (2016) Robust Discrimination between Uncertain Management Alternatives by Iterative Reflection on Crossover Point Scenarios: Principles, Design and Implementations. Environmental Modelling & Software 83: 326–43. doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.04.005 When comparing environmental management alternatives, there is a need to assess the effect of uncertainty…
Potential surprise theory as a theoretical foundation for scenario planning (2016)
Derbyshire, J. (2016) Potential surprise theory as a theoretical foundation for scenario planning, Technological Forecasting & Social Change (in press), June 2016, http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162516300671 Despite some recent progress, scenario planning’s development as an academic discipline remains constrained by the perception it is solely a practical tool for thinking about the future,…
Augmenting the intuitive logics scenario planning method for a more comprehensive analysis of causation (2016)
Derbyshire, G. Wright, Augmenting the intuitive logics scenario planning method for a more comprehensive analysis of causation, International Journal of Forecasting (in press), May 2016, doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2016.01.004 This paper shows that, in practice, the standard approach to scenario planning, known as ‘intuitive logics’, is overly focused on uncovering causes of one…
An uncertain future, deep uncertainty, scenarios, robustness and adaptation: How do they fit together? (2016)
H.R. Maier, J.H.A. Guillaume, H. van Delden, G.A. Riddell, M. Haasnoot, J.H. Kwakkel, An uncertain future, deep uncertainty, scenarios, robustness and adaptation: How do they fit together?, Environmental Modelling & Software, Volume 81, July 2016, Pages 154-164, ISSN 1364-8152, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.03.014 A highly uncertain future due to changes in climate,…