Rebecca Smith, Joseph Kasprzyk, Lisa Dilling, Testing the potential of Multiobjective Evolutionary Algorithms (MOEAs) with Colorado water managers, Environmental Modelling & Software, Volume 117, 2019, Pages 149-163, ISSN 1364-8152, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2019.03.011. Multiobjective Evolutionary Algorithms (MOEAs) generate quantitative information about performance relationships between a system’s potentially conflicting objectives (termed tradeoffs). Research applications have suggested…
Robust abatement pathways to tolerable climate futures require immediate global action (2019)
J. R. Lamontagne, P. M. Reed, G. Marangoni, K. Keller, and G. G. Garner. Robust abatement pathways to tolerable climate futures require immediate global action. Nature Climate Change, page 1, March 2019. ISSN 1758-6798. doi: 10.1038/s41558-019-0426-8. URL https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0426-8. Disentangling the relative importance of climate change abatement policies from the human–Earth…
Investments under non-stationarity: economic evaluation of adaptation pathways (2019)
Haasnoot, M., van Aalst, M., Rozenberg, J., Dominique, K., Matthews, J., Bouwer, L. M., … Poff, N. L. (2019). Investments under non-stationarity: economic evaluation of adaptation pathways. Climatic Change. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02409-6 Investment decisions about capital-intensive, long-lived infrastructure are challenging due to uncertainty about their future performance, particularly if the performance is…
Dynamically Optimizing the Strategic Plan of Mining Complexes (2019)
Del Castillo, M. F., & Dimitrakopoulos, R. (2019). Dynamically optimizing the strategic plan of mining complexes under supply uncertainty. Resources Policy, 60, 83-93. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301420718302307 Abstract Mining complexes are comprised of multiple mines and mineral processing streams, each governed by internal (mineral deposit, operation) and external (commodity prices) uncertainties, and must be optimized jointly…
Advancing disaster policies by integrating dynamic adaptive behaviour in risk assessments using an agent-based modelling approach (2019)
Haer,T. Botzen, W.J.W, Aerts, J.C.J.H. (2019) Advancing disaster policies by integrating dynamic adaptive behaviour in risk assessments using an agent-based modelling approach. Environmental Research Letters 14 044022 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab0770 Recent floods in the United States and Asia again highlighted their devastating effects, and without investments in adaptation, the future impact of…
Open Access DMDU Book Released!
The Open Access Book “Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice” has been released by Springer (Click here to download). This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches…
Decision under Normative Uncertainty (2018)
Franz Dietrich, Brian Jabarian. Decision Under Normative Uncertainty. PSE Working Paper n°2018-46. 2018. <halshs-01877769> Abstract: How should we evaluate options when we are uncertain about the correct standard of evaluation, for instance due to conflicting normative intuitions? Such `normative’ uncertainty differs from ordinary `empirical’ uncertainty about an unknown state, and…
Risk Analysis under Structural Uncertainty (2018)
Sven Ove Hansson, “Risk analysis under structural uncertainty”, pp. 241-264 in Terje Aven and Enrico Zio, Knowledge in Risk Assessment and Management, Wiley 2018. Abstract: Standard decision theory is devoted to problems in which we have a well-defined decision to make. We are assumed to know what we are going to…
Designing a monitoring system to detect signals to adapt to uncertain climate change
Haasnoot, M., van ’t Klooster, S. & van Alphen, J. Designing a monitoring system to detect signals to adapt to uncertain climate change. Glob. Environ. Chang. 52, 273–285 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2018.08.003 Adaptive plans aim to anticipate uncertain future changes by combining low-regret short-term actions with long-term options to adapt, if necessary. Monitoring…
Including robustness considerations in the search phase of Many-Objective Robust Decision Making (2018)
Eker S & Kwakkel JH (2018). Including robustness considerations in the search phase of Many-Objective Robust Decision Making. Environmental Modelling & Software 105: 201-216. DOI:10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.03.029. Many-Objective Robust Decision Making (MORDM) is a prominent model-based approach for dealing with deep uncertainty. MORDM has four phases: a systems analytical problem formulation, a search phase to generate candidate solutions, a trade-off analysis where different strategies…