On 15 December the New Zealand Government issued revised national Guidance on Coastal Hazards and Climate Change for decision makers which has DMDU methods at its core. Dynamic Adaptive Pathways Planning is used to address uncertainties around hazards and sea-level rise beyond mid-century when the uncertainty bands widen. The framework of…
Getting to grips with uncertainty across multiple scales at the 5th Annual Workshop on Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty
Today’s decision makers face conditions of fast-paced, transformative, and often surprising change. Decisions on issues such as climate change mitigation and adaptation, defense spending or avoiding the collapse of financial systems are all plagued by diverse and complex uncertainties. So how do we respond to this world of increasing uncertainty?…
UNFCCC COP23 Side Event: ‘Making robust investment decisions under deep uncertainty’
Title Making robust investment decisions under deep uncertainty: a new approach to sustainable development planning in uncertain world Date and time November 8th, 2017 10:30-12:00 @Japan Pavilion (COP23 Bonn Zone) * To attend the event, it is necessary to register for COP23 to enter Bonn Zone. For information on the…
Managing deep uncertainty: Exploratory modeling, adaptive plans and joint sense making
Reposted from https://i2insights.org/2017/08/15/managing-deep-uncertainty/ How can decision making on complex systems come to grips with irreducible, or deep, uncertainty? Such uncertainty has three sources: Intrinsic limits to predictability in complex systems. A variety of stakeholders with different perspectives on what the system is and what problem needs to be solved. Complex systems…
Decision-Making Under Uncertain Climate Change: A Response, and an Invitation, to Bret Stephens
By Robert Lempert and Marjolijn Haasnoot In columnist Bret Stephens’ first blog post for the New York Times, published at the end of April, he highlights the uncertainty surrounding climate change, warns against overconfidence, and issues an invitation to dialogue. We agree that significant uncertainty exists regarding the future impacts…
A practical approach to resilience
by Karin de Bruijn and Marjolein Mens This blog is reposted from https://www.deltares.nl/en/news/a-practical-approach-to-resilience/ Societies face increasing complexity and uncertainty in decision making to cope with extreme weather events. Therefore oversimplified risk approaches should evolve to much richer resilience strategies. Yet, resilience is often more a policy buzzword or topic for…
Preparing transport for an uncertain climate future: I don’t have a crystal ball, but I have a computer
by Julie Rozenberg, Economist at the World Bank in the Chief Economist Office for Sustainable Development. This blog is a reposted from the World Bank. In 2015, severe floods washed away a series of bridges in Mozambique’s Nampula province, leaving several small villages completely isolated. Breslau, a local engineer and…
First Annual Training Day on DMDU methods
by: Steven Popper The Society for Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty held its first annual training day event on 15 November 2016 at World Bank Headquarters in Washington, DC. This was the day prior to the start of the DMDU Society’s annual two-day workshop. The Society’s leadership team has decided…
Deep Uncertainty and the Long-Term: Time, the policy challenge and enablers for policy persistence
by Judy Lawrence and Robert Lempert At the conclusion of the DMDU workshop at Deltares, The Netherlands in 2015, we identified political scientists as an additional group that could inform the discussions at the next annual workshop. Accordingly, we designed a problem session at the annual workshop at the World…
What are the topics of this year’s annual meeting? A word cloud
by Marjolijn Haasnoot, Laura Bonzanigo Tomorrow we will start our 4th annual meeting of the Society for Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty. Like last year we made word cloud of the titles of the presentation, abstract and posters. As expected ‘uncertainty’ is one of the most frequent words this year. However,…