Andrea L. Taylor, Suraje Dessai, Wändi Bruine de Bruin Communicating uncertainty in seasonal and interannual climate forecasts in Europe. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 2015 373 20140454; DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2014.0454 http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/373/2055/20140454 Abstract: Across Europe, organizations in different sectors are sensitive to climate variability and change, at a range of temporal scales…
“Managing Water Quality in the Face of Uncertainty: A Robust Decision Making Demonstration for EPA’s National Water Program (2015)”
Fischbach, Jordan R., Robert J. Lempert, Edmundo Molina-Perez, Abdul Ahad Tariq, Melissa L. Finucane and Frauke Hoss. Managing Water Quality in the Face of Uncertainty: A Robust Decision Making Demonstration for EPA’s National Water Program. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2015. http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR720.html. Also available in print form. The U.S. Environmental…
Adapt or Perish: An Approach to Planning Under Deep Uncertainty (2015)
Warren Walker, “Adapt or Perish: An Approach to Planning Under Deep Uncertainty”, Online at https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-01166279 . Abstract : Much policy advice is formulated implicitly assuming that the future can be predicted. A static policy is developed using a single ‘most likely’ future, often based on the extrapolation of trends; or…
Adaptive Delta Management for flood risk and resilience in Dordrecht, The Netherlands (2015)
B. Gersonius, J. Rijke, R. Ashley, P. Bloemen, E. Kelder, C. Zevenbergen Adaptive Delta Management for flood risk and resilience in Dordrecht, The Netherlands, Natural Hazards, 2015, pp 1-16 http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11069-015-2015-0 Abstract Many countries across the world are experiencing strict austerity measures due to the economic crisis. As a consequence, public financing for stand-alone…
Transient scenarios for robust climate change adaptation illustrated for water management in The Netherlands (2015)
Haasnoot, M., Schellekens, J., Beersma, J.J., Middelkoop, H., Kwadijk, J.C.J., 2015. Transient scenarios for robust climate change adaptation illustrated for water management in The Netherlands. Environ. Res. Lett. 10, 105008. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/10/105008 Climate scenarios are used to explore impacts of possible future climates and to assess the robustness of adaptation actions…
Reasoned Decision Making Without Math? Adaptability and Robustness in Response to Surprise (2015)
Michael Smithson and Yakov Ben-Haim, 2015, Reasoned Decision Making Without Math? Adaptability and Robustness in Response to Surprise, Risk Analysis, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/risa.12397/pdf Many real-world planning and decision problems are far too uncertain, too variable, and too complicated to support realistic mathematical models. Nonetheless, we explain the usefulness, in these situations, of…
Robust decision-making in the water sector : a strategy for implementing Lima’s long-term water resources master plan (2015)
Kalra, Nidhi Rajiv; Groves, David G.; Bonzanigo, Laura; Perez, Edmundo Molina; Ramos Taipe, Cayo Leonidas; Cabanillas, Ivan Rodriguez; Brandon, Carter J.. 2015. Peru – Robust decision-making in the water sector : a strategy for implementing Lima’s long-term water resources master plan. Washington, DC: World Bank. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/06/24701804/peru-robust-decision-making-water-sector-strategy-implementing-lima’s-long-term-water-resources-master-plan How can water resource…
Battling Arrow’s Paradox to Discover Robust Water Management Alternatives (2015)
Kasprzyk, J., Reed, P.M., and Hadka, D., “Battling Arrow’s Paradox to Discover Robust Water Management Alternatives.”, Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, (In-Press). This study demonstrates how Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem, a theory of social choice, is of direct concern when formulating water-resources systems planning problems. Traditional strategies for solving…
Curses, Tradeoffs, and Scalable Management: Advancing Evolutionary Multiobjective Direct Policy Search to Improve Water Reservoir Operations (2015)
Giuliani, M., Castelletti, A., Pianosi, F., Mason, E., and Reed, P. (2015). “Curses, Tradeoffs, and Scalable Management: Advancing Evolutionary Multiobjective Direct Policy Search to Improve Water Reservoir Operations.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage. ,10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000570 , 04015050. Optimal management policies for water reservoir operation are generally designed via stochastic dynamic programming…
Confronting Tipping Points: Can Multi-objective Evolutionary Algorithms Discover Pollution Control Tradeoffs Given Environmental Thresholds? (2015)
Ward, V., Singh, R., Reed, P.M., and Keller, K., “Confronting Tipping Points: Can Multi-objective Evolutionary Algorithms Discover Pollution Control Tradeoffs Given Environmental Thresholds?”, Environmental Modelling & Software, v73, 27-43, 2015. This study contributes a stochastic, multi-objective adaptation of the classic environmental economics Lake Problem as a computationally simple but mathematically…