Warren Walker, “Adapt or Perish: An Approach to Planning Under Deep Uncertainty”, Online at https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-01166279 . Abstract : Much policy advice is formulated implicitly assuming that the future can be predicted. A static policy is developed using a single ‘most likely’ future, often based on the extrapolation of trends; or…
Adaptive Delta Management for flood risk and resilience in Dordrecht, The Netherlands (2015)
B. Gersonius, J. Rijke, R. Ashley, P. Bloemen, E. Kelder, C. Zevenbergen Adaptive Delta Management for flood risk and resilience in Dordrecht, The Netherlands, Natural Hazards, 2015, pp 1-16 http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11069-015-2015-0 Abstract Many countries across the world are experiencing strict austerity measures due to the economic crisis. As a consequence, public financing for stand-alone…
Transient scenarios for robust climate change adaptation illustrated for water management in The Netherlands (2015)
Haasnoot, M., Schellekens, J., Beersma, J.J., Middelkoop, H., Kwadijk, J.C.J., 2015. Transient scenarios for robust climate change adaptation illustrated for water management in The Netherlands. Environ. Res. Lett. 10, 105008. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/10/105008 Climate scenarios are used to explore impacts of possible future climates and to assess the robustness of adaptation actions…
Reasoned Decision Making Without Math? Adaptability and Robustness in Response to Surprise (2015)
Michael Smithson and Yakov Ben-Haim, 2015, Reasoned Decision Making Without Math? Adaptability and Robustness in Response to Surprise, Risk Analysis, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/risa.12397/pdf Many real-world planning and decision problems are far too uncertain, too variable, and too complicated to support realistic mathematical models. Nonetheless, we explain the usefulness, in these situations, of…
Robust decision-making in the water sector : a strategy for implementing Lima’s long-term water resources master plan (2015)
Kalra, Nidhi Rajiv; Groves, David G.; Bonzanigo, Laura; Perez, Edmundo Molina; Ramos Taipe, Cayo Leonidas; Cabanillas, Ivan Rodriguez; Brandon, Carter J.. 2015. Peru – Robust decision-making in the water sector : a strategy for implementing Lima’s long-term water resources master plan. Washington, DC: World Bank. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/06/24701804/peru-robust-decision-making-water-sector-strategy-implementing-lima’s-long-term-water-resources-master-plan How can water resource…
Battling Arrow’s Paradox to Discover Robust Water Management Alternatives (2015)
Kasprzyk, J., Reed, P.M., and Hadka, D., “Battling Arrow’s Paradox to Discover Robust Water Management Alternatives.”, Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, (In-Press). This study demonstrates how Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem, a theory of social choice, is of direct concern when formulating water-resources systems planning problems. Traditional strategies for solving…
Curses, Tradeoffs, and Scalable Management: Advancing Evolutionary Multiobjective Direct Policy Search to Improve Water Reservoir Operations (2015)
Giuliani, M., Castelletti, A., Pianosi, F., Mason, E., and Reed, P. (2015). “Curses, Tradeoffs, and Scalable Management: Advancing Evolutionary Multiobjective Direct Policy Search to Improve Water Reservoir Operations.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage. ,10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000570 , 04015050. Optimal management policies for water reservoir operation are generally designed via stochastic dynamic programming…
Confronting Tipping Points: Can Multi-objective Evolutionary Algorithms Discover Pollution Control Tradeoffs Given Environmental Thresholds? (2015)
Ward, V., Singh, R., Reed, P.M., and Keller, K., “Confronting Tipping Points: Can Multi-objective Evolutionary Algorithms Discover Pollution Control Tradeoffs Given Environmental Thresholds?”, Environmental Modelling & Software, v73, 27-43, 2015. This study contributes a stochastic, multi-objective adaptation of the classic environmental economics Lake Problem as a computationally simple but mathematically…
Many-objective robust decision making for managing an ecosystem with a deeply uncertain threshold response (2015)
Singh, R., Reed, P.M., and Keller, K., “Many-objective robust decision making for managing an ecosystem with a deeply uncertain threshold response”, Ecology and Society v20, No.3, 12, doi: 10.5751/ES-07687-200312, 2015. Managing ecosystems with deeply uncertain threshold responses and multiple decision makers poses nontrivial decision analytical challenges. The problem is imbued…
Evaluating simulation-derived scenarios for effective decision support (2015)
Parker, A.M., Srinivasan, S.V., Lempert, R.J., & Berry, S.H. (2015). Evaluating simulation-derived scenarios for effective decision support. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 91, 64-77. Scenario planning traditionally relies on qualitative methods to choose its scenarios. Recently, quantitative decision support tools have also begun to facilitate such choices. This study uses…