by Marjolijn Haasnoot (Deltares, Delft University), Judy Lawrence (New Zealand Climate Change Research Institute), Robert Lempert (RAND), Nidhi Kalra (RAND), Jan Kwakkel (Delft University) In early November 2015 about 100 scientists and practitioners from all over the world shared their experiences and methods at the third annual meeting of…
Adaptation to Climate Change in Planning Infrastructure (2015)
Lempert, Robert, Brent Boehlert, David Groves, James E. Neumann, Kenneth M. Strzepek, Oliver Broad, Vignesh Sridharan and R. Cervigni (2015). “Adaptation to Climate Change in Planning Infrastructure”. Enhancing the Climate Resilience of Africa’s Infrastructure. Raffaello Cervigni, Rikard Liden, a. James E. Neumann and R. M. Strzepek. Washington, DC, World Bank,…
Integrating top-down and bottom-up approaches to design global change adaptation at the river basin scale (2015)
Girard, C., Pulido-Velazquez, M., Rinaudo, J.-D., Page, C., and Caballero, Y., 2015, Integrating top-down and bottom-up approaches to design global change adaptation at the river basin scale, Global Environmental Change 34,132-146 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.07.002 The high uncertainty associated with the effect of global change on water resource systems calls for a…
Defense Resource Planning Under Uncertainty: An Application of Robust Decision Making to Munitions Mix Planning (2016)
Lempert, Robert J., Drake Warren, Ryan Henry, Robert W. Button, Jonathan Klenk and Kate Giglio. Defense Resource Planning Under Uncertainty: An Application of Robust Decision Making to Munitions Mix Planning. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2016. http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1112.html. Also available in print form. Robust decision making stress-tests plans over a wide…
Unprecedented drought and decision-making (2015)
Borgomeo, E., G. Pflug, J. W. Hall, and S. Hochrainer-Stigler (2015), Assessing water resource system vulnerability to unprecedented hydrological drought using copulas to characterize drought duration and deficit, Water Resour. Res., 51, 8927–8948, doi:10.1002/2015WR017324. Global climate models suggest an increase in evapotranspiration, changing storm tracks, and moisture delivery in…
An institutional and socio-cultural perspective on the adaptation pathways approach (2015)
Van der Brugge, R., Roosjen, R. (2015) An institutional and socio-cultural perspective on the adaptation pathways approach. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 06-4. Online doi: 10.2166/wcc.2015.001 Abstract: The uncertainties surrounding climate change are creating challenges for policy makers with regard to investments in water-related infrastructure. A promising new approach is the adaptation…
Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design : The Decision Tree Framework
The Decision Tree Framework described in this book provides resource-limited project planners and program managers with a cost-effective and effort-efficient, scientifically defensible, repeatable, and clear method for demonstrating the robustness of a project to climate change. At the conclusion of this process, the project planner will be empowered to confidently…
“Embedding (Some) benefit-cost concepts into decision support processes with deep uncertainty (2015)”
Lempert, R. (2015). Embedding (some) benefit-cost concepts into decision support processes with deep uncertainty. Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, 5(3), pp. 487-514. Retrieved 23 Jan. 2016, from doi:10.1515/jbca-2014-9006 http://www.degruyter.com/view/j/jbca.2014.5.issue-3/jbca-2014-9006/jbca-2014-9006.xml Benefit-cost analysis (BCA) aims to help people make better decisions. But BCA does not always serve this role as well as intended. In…
Communicating uncertainty in seasonal and interannual climate forecasts in Europe (2015)
Andrea L. Taylor, Suraje Dessai, Wändi Bruine de Bruin Communicating uncertainty in seasonal and interannual climate forecasts in Europe. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 2015 373 20140454; DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2014.0454 http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/373/2055/20140454 Abstract: Across Europe, organizations in different sectors are sensitive to climate variability and change, at a range of temporal scales…
“Managing Water Quality in the Face of Uncertainty: A Robust Decision Making Demonstration for EPA’s National Water Program (2015)”
Fischbach, Jordan R., Robert J. Lempert, Edmundo Molina-Perez, Abdul Ahad Tariq, Melissa L. Finucane and Frauke Hoss. Managing Water Quality in the Face of Uncertainty: A Robust Decision Making Demonstration for EPA’s National Water Program. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2015. http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR720.html. Also available in print form. The U.S. Environmental…