Herman, J., Zeff, H., Lamontagne, J., Reed, P.M., and Characklis, G., “Synthetic Drought Scenario Generation to Support Bottom-Up Water Supply Vulnerability Assessments.”, Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, v142, no. 11, 2016. http://ascelibrary.org/doi/10.1061/%28ASCE%29WR.1943-5452.0000701 Robustness analyses of water supply systems have moved toward exploratory simulation to discover scenarios in which…
Improving Decision Support for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control (2016)
Manheim, David, Margaret Chamberlin, Osonde Osoba, Raffaele Vardavas and Melinda Moore. Improving Decision Support for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control: Aligning Models and Other Tools with Policymakers’ Needs. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2016. http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1576.html. This report describes decision-support tools, including models and nonmodeling approaches, that are relevant to infectious…
Comparing Robust Decision-Making and Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways for model-based decision support under deep uncertainty (2016)
Jan H. Kwakkel, Marjolijn Haasnoot, Warren E. Walker (2016) Comparing Robust Decision-Making and Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways for model-based decision support under deep uncertainty, Environmental Modelling & Software 86 (2016) 168-183, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.09.017 A variety of model-based approaches for supporting decision-making under deep uncertainty have been suggested, but they are rarely compared and contrasted. In this…
Robust global sensitivity analysis under deep uncertainty via scenario analysis (2016)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S136481521530092X Highlights •We performed global sensitivity analyses of a land use model under deep uncertainty. •Deep uncertainty was characterised by internally consistent global change scenarios. •The influence of scenarios on output uncertainty and parameter sensitivity was significant. •Sensitivity indicators robust to deep uncertainty were calculated using four decision criteria. •Our…
Allowances for evolving coastal flood risk under uncertain local sea-level rise (2016)
Buchanan, M. K., Kopp, R. E., Oppenheimer, M., & Tebaldi, C. (2015). Allowances for evolving coastal flood risk under uncertain local sea-level rise.Climatic Change, 1-16. URL: http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-016-1664-7 Abstract: Estimates of future flood hazards made under the assumption of stationary mean sea level are biased low due to sea-level rise (SLR). However,…
Adaptation pathways in practice: mapping options and trade-offs for London’s water resources (2016)
Kingsborough, A., Borgomeo, E. and Hall, J. (2016) Adaptation pathways in practice: Mapping options and trade-offs for London’s water resources. Sustainable Cities and Society.http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2016.08.013 London’s ability to remain a world-leading city in an increasingly globalised economy is dependent on it being an efficient, low-risk place to do business and a…
The diversity of socio-economic pathways and CO2 emissions scenarios: Insights from the investigation of a scenarios database (2016)
Guivarch, Céline, Julie Rozenberg, and Vanessa Schweizer. 2016. The diversity of socio-economic pathways and CO2 emissions scenarios: Insights from the investigation of a scenarios database. Environmental Modelling & Software 80, p 336-353. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364815216300706 The new scenario framework developed by the climate change research community rests on the fundamental logic that…
Robust discrimination between uncertain management alternatives by iterative reflection on crossover point scenarios: Principles, design and implementations (2016)
Guillaume JHA, Arshad M, Jakeman AJ, Jalava M, Kummu M (2016) Robust Discrimination between Uncertain Management Alternatives by Iterative Reflection on Crossover Point Scenarios: Principles, Design and Implementations. Environmental Modelling & Software 83: 326–43. doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.04.005 When comparing environmental management alternatives, there is a need to assess the effect of uncertainty…
Potential surprise theory as a theoretical foundation for scenario planning (2016)
Derbyshire, J. (2016) Potential surprise theory as a theoretical foundation for scenario planning, Technological Forecasting & Social Change (in press), June 2016, http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162516300671 Despite some recent progress, scenario planning’s development as an academic discipline remains constrained by the perception it is solely a practical tool for thinking about the future,…
Augmenting the intuitive logics scenario planning method for a more comprehensive analysis of causation (2016)
Derbyshire, G. Wright, Augmenting the intuitive logics scenario planning method for a more comprehensive analysis of causation, International Journal of Forecasting (in press), May 2016, doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2016.01.004 This paper shows that, in practice, the standard approach to scenario planning, known as ‘intuitive logics’, is overly focused on uncovering causes of one…