Sondoss Elsawah, Serena H. Hamilton, Anthony J. Jakeman, Dale Rothman, Vanessa Schweizer, Evelina Trutnevyte, Henrik Carlsen, Crystal Drakes, Bob Frame, Baihua Fu, Celine Guivarch, Marjolijn Haasnoot, Eric Kemp-Benedict, Kasper Kok, Hannah Kosow, Mike Ryan, Hedwig van Delden,Scenario processes for socio-environmental systems analysis of futures: A review of recent efforts and…
On considering robustness in the search phase of Robust Decision Making: A comparison of Many-Objective Robust Decision Making, multi-scenario Many-Objective Robust Decision Making, and Many Objective Robust Optimization (2020)
Erin Bartholomew, Jan H. Kwakkel, On considering robustness in the search phase of Robust Decision Making: A comparison of Many-Objective Robust Decision Making, multi-scenario Many-Objective Robust Decision Making, and Many Objective Robust Optimization, Environmental Modelling & Software, Volume 127, 2020,https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2020.104699Abstract: In recent years, a family of approaches has emerged for…
Is real options analysis fit for purpose in supporting climate adaptation planning and decision‐making? (2020)
Kwakkel, JH. Is real options analysis fit for purpose in supporting climate adaptation planning and decision‐making? WIREs Clim Change. 2020; 11:e638. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/wcc.638 Abstract:Even though real options analysis (ROA) is often thought as the best tool available for evaluating flexible strategies, there are profound problems with the assumptions underpinning ROA rendering it unsuitable for use in…
Defining robustness, vulnerabilities, and consequential scenarios for diverse stakeholder interests in institutionally complex river basins (2020)
Hadjimichael, A., Quinn, J. D., Wilson, E., et al. (2020). Defining robustness, vulnerabilities, and consequential scenarios for diverse stakeholder interests in institutionally complex river basins. Earth’s Future, 8, e2020EF001503. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001503 Abstract:The Upper Basin of the Colorado River in the southwestern United States supports municipal, industrial, agricultural, and recreational activities worth an estimated $300 billion/year within the state…
Engaging Multiple Worldviews With Quantitative Decision Support: A Robust Decision‐Making Demonstration Using the Lake Model (2020)
Lempert, R.J. and Turner, S. (2020), Engaging Multiple Worldviews With Quantitative Decision Support: A Robust Decision‐Making Demonstration Using the Lake Model. Risk Analysis. doi:10.1111/risa.13579 Abstract:Many of today’s most pressing policy challenges are usefully characterized as wicked problems. With contested framings parties to a decision disagree not only on potential solutions,…
Eight grand challenges in socio-environmental systems modeling
Elsawah, S., Filatova, T., Jakeman, A. J., Kettner, A. J., Zellner, M. L., Athanasiadis, I. N., Hamilton, S. H., Axtell, R. L., Brown, D. G., Gilligan, J. M., Janssen, M. A., Robinson, D. T., Rozenberg, J., Ullah, I. I. T., & Lade, S. J. (2020). Eight grand challenges in socio-environmental…
Water is a master variable: solving for resilience in the modern era (2019)
Frederick Boltz, N. LeRoy Poff, Carl Folke, Nancy Kete, Casey M. Brown, Sarah St. George Freeman, John H. Matthews, Alex Martinez, Johan Rockström, Water is a master variable: Solving for resilience in the modern era, Water Security, 8, 2019 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wasec.2019.100048. Resilience is increasingly recognized as an imperative for any…
Modeling with Stakeholders for Transformative Change (2019)
van Bruggen, A.; Nikolic, I.; Kwakkel, J. Modeling with Stakeholders for Transformative Change. Sustainability 2019, 11, 825. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/su11030825 Coherent responses to important problems such as climate change require involving a multitude of stakeholders in a transformative process leading to development of policy pathways. The process of coming to an agreement…
How to evaluate a monitoring system for adaptive policies: criteria for signposts selection and their model-based evaluation (2019)
Raso, L., Kwakkel, J., Timmermans, J. et al. How to evaluate a monitoring system for adaptive policies: criteria for signposts selection and their model-based evaluation. Climatic Change 153, 267–283 (2019). DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2355-3 Adaptive policies have emerged as a valuable strategy for dealing with uncertainties by recognising the capacity of systems to adapt over time…
Tensions, capabilities, and justice in climate change mitigation of fossil fuels (2019)
Nathan Wood and Katy Roelich (2019). Tensions, capabilities, and justice in climate change mitigation of fossil fuels, Energy Research & Social Science, 52, 114-122 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2019.02.014 In order to mitigate the well-being impacts of climate change effectively, we must reduce our use of fossil fuels. However, many contemporary forms of…