This November the DMDU Society elected a new leadership team. You can find the election results at this link. Warren Walker has agreed to chair our elections committee. Nominations for leadership positions have been closed on November 5. The list of candidates for each position can be found below, and…
Save the Date – Annual Meeting 2018
We are pleased to announce details of the DMDU Society’s 2018 Annual Meeting, which will be held 13 through 15 November, 2018 – please save the date! This year’s meeting will be held in Southern California and will be hosted jointly by the RAND Corporation and the local government…
Seeking volunteers for our Society’s Funding and Career Development chair
We are soliciting suggestions and seeking volunteers for our Society’s Funding and Career Development chair. Our DMDU Society is governed by an eight-member, volunteer leadership team elected by its membership. The leadership team’s Funding and Career Development position is currently vacant. According to our Rules and Processes, the leadership team…
UNFCCC COP23 Side Event: ‘Making robust investment decisions under deep uncertainty’
Title Making robust investment decisions under deep uncertainty: a new approach to sustainable development planning in uncertain world Date and time November 8th, 2017 10:30-12:00 @Japan Pavilion (COP23 Bonn Zone) * To attend the event, it is necessary to register for COP23 to enter Bonn Zone. For information on the…
Managing deep uncertainty: Exploratory modeling, adaptive plans and joint sense making
Reposted from https://i2insights.org/2017/08/15/managing-deep-uncertainty/ How can decision making on complex systems come to grips with irreducible, or deep, uncertainty? Such uncertainty has three sources: Intrinsic limits to predictability in complex systems. A variety of stakeholders with different perspectives on what the system is and what problem needs to be solved. Complex systems…
Uncertainty at AGU
Several sessions at AGU 2017 conference will adress (hydrologic) uncertainty. An overview is given here: http://aguhu.blogspot.nl/2017/07/which-session-to-submit-to-hydrologic.html DMDU draws on a range of approaches to deal with uncertainty. Methods for living with (deep) uncertainty is a key focus, but not all aspects of a situation are deeply uncertain. Even if we…
Register for the annual workshop
If you have not yet done so, you can sign up for the annual workshop at http://bit.ly/DMDU2017. Here you’ll also find information about the workshop, and this will be updated as the programme is confirmed. This page also provides information about a DMDU training day on Monday 13 November, which…
Deadline for abstracts extended
The deadline for submitting abstracts for this years annual meeting is extended to 9th of June. To register or submit an abstract, please go to the conference website.
Decision-Making Under Uncertain Climate Change: A Response, and an Invitation, to Bret Stephens
By Robert Lempert and Marjolijn Haasnoot In columnist Bret Stephens’ first blog post for the New York Times, published at the end of April, he highlights the uncertainty surrounding climate change, warns against overconfidence, and issues an invitation to dialogue. We agree that significant uncertainty exists regarding the future impacts…
A practical approach to resilience
by Karin de Bruijn and Marjolein Mens This blog is reposted from https://www.deltares.nl/en/news/a-practical-approach-to-resilience/ Societies face increasing complexity and uncertainty in decision making to cope with extreme weather events. Therefore oversimplified risk approaches should evolve to much richer resilience strategies. Yet, resilience is often more a policy buzzword or topic for…
2017 annual meeting: DMDU across mulitiple scales. Submit an abstract and register
Please save the date for the 2017 DMDU meeting. The meeting will be hosted by the Oxford Martin School in Oxford, UK, on 14-15 November 2017, with a training on DMDU methodologies scheduled for 13 November 2017. For more information on the workshop, visit the website. The 2017 annual meeting theme…
Preparing transport for an uncertain climate future: I don’t have a crystal ball, but I have a computer
by Julie Rozenberg, Economist at the World Bank in the Chief Economist Office for Sustainable Development. This blog is a reposted from the World Bank. In 2015, severe floods washed away a series of bridges in Mozambique’s Nampula province, leaving several small villages completely isolated. Breslau, a local engineer and…
First Annual Training Day on DMDU methods
by: Steven Popper The Society for Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty held its first annual training day event on 15 November 2016 at World Bank Headquarters in Washington, DC. This was the day prior to the start of the DMDU Society’s annual two-day workshop. The Society’s leadership team has decided…
Bridging the False Divide: Are We Ignoring the Role of Adaptive Operations for Improving the Efficiency, Resilience and Robustness of Planned Infrastructure?
by: Patrick Reed This blog reports on one of the session of the annual meeting of 2016. The sessoin was organized by Patrick Reed (Cornell University), Jan Kwakkel (TU Delft), Andrea Castelletti (Politecnico di Milano), Laura Bonzanigo (World Bank). Invited speakers were Julie Quinn (Cornell University) and Marc Jaxa-Rozen (TU Delft)….
Deep Uncertainty and the Long-Term: Time, the policy challenge and enablers for policy persistence
by Judy Lawrence and Robert Lempert At the conclusion of the DMDU workshop at Deltares, The Netherlands in 2015, we identified political scientists as an additional group that could inform the discussions at the next annual workshop. Accordingly, we designed a problem session at the annual workshop at the World…
What are the topics of this year’s annual meeting? A word cloud
by Marjolijn Haasnoot, Laura Bonzanigo Tomorrow we will start our 4th annual meeting of the Society for Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty. Like last year we made word cloud of the titles of the presentation, abstract and posters. As expected ‘uncertainty’ is one of the most frequent words this year. However,…
Programme for the 2016 annual workshop is now available!
The World Bank will host the 2016 DMDU workshop in Washington DC, on November 16 and 17, 2016, with a training on DMDU methodologies scheduled for November 15th, 2016. There is still place for the training, but it is running out fast. Please confirm here by October 15 if you have not done…
Embracing Uncertainty for Better Decision-Making
by Laura Tuck and Julie Rozenberg, Sustainable Development Practice Group, World Bank Group We all face uncertainties. What if the train’s late? What if it rains? What if traffic is bad? What if there’s a shift in government before the project starts? Every day we’re hit by all the “what ifs”…
Report from Session B5 on “Managing Uncertainty” at the 8th International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
by Joseph Guillaume At the iEMSs2016 conference in Toulouse, the session on Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty (see blog report) was accompanied by a more generic one on “Managing Uncertainty”, organised by Joseph Guillaume (Aalto University), Tony Jakeman (Australian National University), Holger Maier (The University of Adelaide), Jiri Nossent (Flanders…
Deep Uncertainty at the International Congress on Environmental Modeling and Software
by Rob Lempert and Jan Kwakkel, The 8th International Congress on Environmental Modeling and Software in Toulouse, France, on July 10-14, 2016, featured a track titled Advancing in Environmental Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty: Emerging Tools and Challenges. The track was co-organized by Jan Kwakkel (Delft University of Technology), Patrick…
Annual Workshop
Registration for our annual workshop in Washington DC (November 16-17) is now closed. This year’s workshop is organized around two key elements. First, the workshop will include 6 “problem-solving” sessions during which we will have group discussions around practical problems our Society members face in their work, and possible solutions. These will…
Report from the Third workshop on Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty
by Marjolijn Haasnoot (Deltares, Delft University), Judy Lawrence (New Zealand Climate Change Research Institute), Robert Lempert (RAND), Nidhi Kalra (RAND), Jan Kwakkel (Delft University) In early November 2015 about 100 scientists and practitioners from all over the world shared their experiences and methods at the third annual meeting of…
DMDU Summer School 2025
Dates: July 21 – 25, 2025 Location: Utrecht University, The Netherlands Hosts: The DMDU Society and Utrecht University Application Deadline: April 21st, 2025 Program overview Offered in collaboration with the Society for Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty (http://deepuncertainty.org), the purpose of the DMDU summer school is to bring together graduate students, postdoctoral researchers,…
Taxonomy of purposes, methods, and recommendations for vulnerability analysis (2025)
Bonham, N., Kasprzyk, J., Zagona, E., 2025. Taxonomy of purposes, methods, and recommendations for vulnerability analysis. Environmental Modelling & Software 183, 106269. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2024.106269 Vulnerability analysis is an emerging technique that discovers concise descriptions of the conditions that lead to decision-relevant outcomes (i.e., scenarios) by applying machine learning methods to a…
Online Symposium on DMDU in Health
Date: Nov 25th, 2024, 11 am – 2 pm ETRegistration: https://bit.ly/dmdu-health-24 This online symposium will bring together researchers and practitioners to explore advances in decision-making under deep uncertainty in Health Policy. Speakers will cover the foundations of the DMDU field and showcase applications covering multiple approaches and substantive areas, ranging…
Let decision-makers direct the search for robust solutions: An interactive framework for multiobjective robust optimization under deep uncertainty (2025)
Babooshka Shavazipour, Jan H. Kwakkel, Kaisa Miettinen, Let decision-makers direct the search for robust solutions: An interactive framework for multiobjective robust optimization under deep uncertainty, Environmental Modelling & Software, Volume 183, 2025, 106233. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2024.106233. (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364815224002949) Abstract: The robust decision-making framework (RDM) has been extended to consider multiple objective functions and…
Doctoral Researcher in Computational Science – University of Jyväskylä, Finland
The Faculty of Information Technology is seeking a Doctoral Researcher (PhD student) for the project “Anti-fragile Decision-making: tHink beYonD Robustness And resilience” (HYDRA), funded by the Research Council of Finland and supervised by Dr. Babooshka Shavazipour as part of the Multiobjective Optimization Group at the University of Jyväskylä, Finland. The position will start…
Prescriptive Analytics-based Robust Decision-making Model for Cyber Disaster Risk Reduction (2024)
Ponnoly, J., Puthenveetil, J., & D’Urso, P. (2024, February). Prescriptive Analytics-based Robust Decision-Making Model for Cyber Disaster Risk Reduction. In 2024 IEEE 3rd International Conference on AI in Cybersecurity (ICAIC) (pp. 1-5). IEEE. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/378271477_Prescriptive_Analytics-based_Robust_Decision-Making_Model_for_Cyber_Disaster_Risk_Reduction Decision-making in cyber security attack scenarios involves deep uncertainty and adversarial decision-making. Robust Decision Making (RDM) uses a…
Postdoctoral Associate in Environmental Data Analytics – Penn State
The Department of Geosciences at Penn State University is announcing a Postdoctoral Associate position in data analytics for environmental and health outcomes. The successful candidate will play a central role in the DOE-funded Baltimore Urban Integrated Field Laboratory, with the opportunity to collaborate on other data analytics projects. The postdoc will be co-advised by Dr. Antonia Hadjimichael and Dr….
PhD position in Integrated Forest Risk Management
The Forest Resources Management (FORM) at ETH aims to maximise forest utilities for humans today and in the future. With this vision in mind our research is centred around the development of impact oriented new approaches to inventory our forest resources, decision support systems to manage our forests sustainably under risk, and…
Exploratory modelling and analysis to support decision-making under deep uncertainty: A case study from defence resource planning and asset management (2024)
Cite: Kahagalage, S. D., Turan, H. H., Elsawah, S., & Gary, M. S. (2024). Exploratory modelling and analysis to support decision-making under deep uncertainty: A case study from defence resource planning and asset management. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 200, 123150. url: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162523008351?via%3Dihub Abstract Emerging approaches and tools in the literature for…
DMDU summer school
Dates: July 29 – August 2, 2024 Location: Abuja, Nigeria Hosts: The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) & The Centre for Journalism Innovation and Development (CJID) Application Deadline: February 29th, 2024 Program overview Offered in collaboration with the Society for Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty (http://deepuncertainty.org), the purpose of the…