Hadjimichael, A., Quinn, J. D., Wilson, E., et al. (2020). Defining robustness, vulnerabilities, and consequential scenarios for diverse stakeholder interests in institutionally complex river basins. Earth’s Future, 8, e2020EF001503. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001503 Abstract:The Upper Basin of the Colorado River in the southwestern United States supports municipal, industrial, agricultural, and recreational activities worth an estimated $300 billion/year within the state…
Engaging Multiple Worldviews With Quantitative Decision Support: A Robust Decision‐Making Demonstration Using the Lake Model (2020)
Lempert, R.J. and Turner, S. (2020), Engaging Multiple Worldviews With Quantitative Decision Support: A Robust Decision‐Making Demonstration Using the Lake Model. Risk Analysis. doi:10.1111/risa.13579 Abstract:Many of today’s most pressing policy challenges are usefully characterized as wicked problems. With contested framings parties to a decision disagree not only on potential solutions,…
Eight grand challenges in socio-environmental systems modeling
Elsawah, S., Filatova, T., Jakeman, A. J., Kettner, A. J., Zellner, M. L., Athanasiadis, I. N., Hamilton, S. H., Axtell, R. L., Brown, D. G., Gilligan, J. M., Janssen, M. A., Robinson, D. T., Rozenberg, J., Ullah, I. I. T., & Lade, S. J. (2020). Eight grand challenges in socio-environmental…
Putting adaptive planning into practice: A meta-analysis of current applications (2020)
Shirin Malekpour, Jens Newig. Putting adaptive planning into practice: A meta-analysis of current applications (2020). Cities Volume 106, November 2020, 102866 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2020.102866 Abstract Adaptive planning, as opposed to the conventional ‘predict-and-act’ approach, has emerged as a paradigm to increase the resilience of our built environment and infrastructure systems. However, we…
Confronting Model Uncertainty in Policy Analysis for Complex Systems: What Policymakers Should Demand
Paul K. Davis and Steven W. Popper (2019), “Confronting Model Uncertainty in Policy Analysis for Complex Systems: What Policymakers Should Demand,” Journal of Policy and Complex Systems, 2(5), 181-201. https://view.joomag.com/journal-on-policy-complex-systems-volume-5-number-2-fall-2019/0729098001579703740/p182?short= Abstract: Good policy analysis needs to improve in routinely addressing not only uncertainty about model inputs to the model used,…
Meeting Climate, Mobility, and Equity Goals in Transportation Planning Under Wide-Ranging Scenarios: A Demonstration of Robust Decision Making
Robert Lempert, James Syme, George Mazur, Debra Knopman, Garett Ballard-Rosa, Kacey Lizon, Ifeanyi Edochie. Meeting Climate, Mobility, and Equity Goals in Transportation Planning Under Wide-Ranging Scenarios: A Demonstration of Robust Decision Making (2020) https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01944363.2020.1727766 Problem, research strategy, and findings: Prediction-based approaches, the heart of current transportation planning practice, are inadequate…
Climate adaptation as a control problem: Review and perspectives on dynamic water resources planning under uncertainty (2020)
Jonathan D. Herman Julianne D. Quinn Scott Steinschneider Matteo Giuliani Sarah Fletcher. Climate adaptation as a control problem: Review and perspectives on dynamic water resources planning under uncertainty. Water Resources Management (2020) https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR025502 Abstract Climate change introduces substantial uncertainty to water resources planning and raises the key question: when, or…
Confident, likely, or both? The implementation of the uncertainty language framework in IPCC special reports (2020)
Janzwood, S. Confident, likely, or both? The implementation of the uncertainty language framework in IPCC special reports. Climatic Change (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02746-x <https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-020-02746-x#citeas> Abstract The uncertainty language framework used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is designed to encourage the consistent characterization and communication of uncertainty between chapters, working groups,…
Bridging Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) and Transition Management (TM) to improve strategic planning for sustainable development (2020)
Shirin Malekpour, Warren E. Walker, Fjalar J. de Haan, Niki Frantzeskaki, Vincent A.W.J. Marchau, Bridging Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) and Transition Management (TM) to improve strategic planning for sustainable development, Environmental Science & Policy, Volume 107, 2020, Pages 158-167. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1462901120302008 Sustainable development is a long-term endeavour involving deep…