Jan H. Kwakkel, Marjolijn Haasnoot, Warren E. Walker (2016) Comparing Robust Decision-Making and Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways for model-based decision support under deep uncertainty, Environmental Modelling & Software 86 (2016) 168-183, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.09.017 A variety of model-based approaches for supporting decision-making under deep uncertainty have been suggested, but they are rarely compared and contrasted. In this…
Programme for the 2016 annual workshop is now available!
The World Bank will host the 2016 DMDU workshop in Washington DC, on November 16 and 17, 2016, with a training on DMDU methodologies scheduled for November 15th, 2016. There is still place for the training, but it is running out fast. Please confirm here by October 15 if you have not done…
Robust global sensitivity analysis under deep uncertainty via scenario analysis (2016)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S136481521530092X Highlights •We performed global sensitivity analyses of a land use model under deep uncertainty. •Deep uncertainty was characterised by internally consistent global change scenarios. •The influence of scenarios on output uncertainty and parameter sensitivity was significant. •Sensitivity indicators robust to deep uncertainty were calculated using four decision criteria. •Our…
Incorporating deep uncertainty into the elementary effects method for robust global sensitivity analysis (2016)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380015004949 Internally-consistent scenarios are increasingly used in social–ecological systems modelling to explore how a complex system might be influenced by deeply uncertain future conditions such as climate, population, and demand and supply of resources and energy. The presence of deep uncertainty requires model diagnostic techniques such as global sensitivity analysis…
Allowances for evolving coastal flood risk under uncertain local sea-level rise (2016)
Buchanan, M. K., Kopp, R. E., Oppenheimer, M., & Tebaldi, C. (2015). Allowances for evolving coastal flood risk under uncertain local sea-level rise.Climatic Change, 1-16. URL: http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-016-1664-7 Abstract: Estimates of future flood hazards made under the assumption of stationary mean sea level are biased low due to sea-level rise (SLR). However,…
Adaptation pathways in practice: mapping options and trade-offs for London’s water resources (2016)
Kingsborough, A., Borgomeo, E. and Hall, J. (2016) Adaptation pathways in practice: Mapping options and trade-offs for London’s water resources. Sustainable Cities and Society.http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2016.08.013 London’s ability to remain a world-leading city in an increasingly globalised economy is dependent on it being an efficient, low-risk place to do business and a…
The diversity of socio-economic pathways and CO2 emissions scenarios: Insights from the investigation of a scenarios database (2016)
Guivarch, Céline, Julie Rozenberg, and Vanessa Schweizer. 2016. The diversity of socio-economic pathways and CO2 emissions scenarios: Insights from the investigation of a scenarios database. Environmental Modelling & Software 80, p 336-353. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364815216300706 The new scenario framework developed by the climate change research community rests on the fundamental logic that…