Please find below the available materials from our 2018 Annual Meeting. The complete meeting booklet including the abstracts is available here.
13 November 2018 – Training Day
| 08:00 | Check-in for Registrants |
| 09:00 | Introduction to DMDU and of the plan for the day Interactive exercise on deep uncertainty in practice |
| 10:30 | Generalised framework for understanding DMDU methods |
| 11:30 | Lunch |
| 13:15 | DMDU Ideas Fair: demos of tools, methods and applications Rapidly-Deployable Decision Support for Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty David Groves The Exploratory Modeling Workbench: An Open Source toolkit for exploratory modeling, scenario discovery, and (many objective) robust decision making Jan H. Kwakkel |
| 15:45 | Break |
| 16:00 | Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: A Tentative Taxonomy of Approaches Jan H. Kwakkel |
| 16:30 | Plenary panel and Q&A: DMDU in practice |
14 November 2018 – Workshop Day 1
| 08:00 | Registration and Breakfast |
| 09:00 | Welcome and Introduction Survey of the DMDU field and this meeting Rob Lempert and Jan Kwakkel, DMDU Society; Steven Popper, Chair, Annual Meeting Organizing Committee |
| I. DMDU Methods in Application | |
| 09:15 | Keynote Speaker: Dr. Alejandro Pioré Dean, National School of Social Sciences and Government, Monterrey Institute of Technology (“Tec”); former Minister of the Interior, Government of Mexico |
| 09:30 | Plenary: Cities as complex systems faced with deep uncertainty Chair: Gerdo Aquino MEGA-ADAPT: Simulating socio-hydrological and climatic risks in Mexico City through a self-organizing systems approach Luis A Bojorquez-Tapia, Marco A Janssen, Hallie Eakin, Andrés Baeza, Fidel Serrano-Candela, Paola Gómez-Priego and Yosune Miquelajauregui DMDU in spatial adaptation: embracing vagueness to enable emergence of linkage opportunities Berry Gersonius, Sadie McEvoy, Ellen Kelder and Richard Ashley Climate resilient management of urban stormwater systems: a pilot study in Pittsburgh Jordan R. Fischbach, Kyle Siler-Evans, Devin Tierney, Michael T. Wilson, Lauren M. Cook and Linnea Warren May |
| 10:30 | Breakout 1A: DMDU approaches to the issues of megacities Chair: Berry Gersonius Mitigating the increasing risks of urban flooding in central Shanghai: options and analysis Tian Zhan, Laixiang Sun, Hengzhi Hu Chinese policy-making process to promote low carbon technologies: A potential case for applying Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways Huan Zou Nature-based solutions for flooding risk management under climate change and an urban circular economy in creation: The case of Shenzhen New Marine City Laixiang Sun, Zhan Tian, Junguo Liu, and Dean Ye |
| Breakout 1B: DMDU-informed urban planning and development Chair: Warren Walker Using DMDU to prepare for energy transition in the Philadelphia region Cornelia Colijn, Mark Alan Hughes and Oscar Serpell (presenter) Land use and transportation planning under deep uncertainty Kacey Lizon, Robert Lempert, Garett Ballard-Rosa, George Mazur, Debra Knopman, James Symes and Ifeanyi Edochie Adapting land use and water management plans to a changing climate in Miami-Dade and Broward counties, Florida David Groves, Debra Knopman, Neil Berg, James Syme, Craig Bond and Robert Lempert |
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| Breakout 1C: DMDU and infrastructure planning Chair: Julie Rozenberg Conflicts in coalitions: A stability analysis of robust multi-city regional water supply portfolios David Gold, Bernardo Trindade, Patrick Reed and Greg Characklis Delivering on the Sustainable Development goals through long-term infrastructure planning Daniel Adshead, Scott Thacker, Lena Fuldauer and Jim Hall Emerging applications of adaptation pathways for managing and reducing climate change vulnerability in Californian energy utilities Robert Kay, Judsen Bruzgul, Tommy Hendrickson, Maya Bruguera and Cole Wheeler Resilience of complex infrastructure systems under deep uncertainty: an analysis of Mexico’s fuel transportation and storage infrastructure Edmundo Molina-Perez, Giovanni Hernandez, Fabian Carranza, Steven Popper and Luis Serra. |
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| 12:00 | Lunch and networking activity; Poster session |
| 13:15 | Breakout 2A: Water resource applications colloquium Chair: Jordan Fischbach Water resource planning under future climate and socioeconomic uncertainty in the Cauvery River basin in Karnataka, India Ajay Bhave, Declan Conway, Suraje Dessai and David Stainforth Multi-objective analysis of funding allocations for non-structural flood risk mitigation in coastal Louisiana David Johnson, Zach Richardson, Simon Gomez Sierra and Matthew Shisler Modelling dynamics and adaptation at operational and structural scales for the ex-ante economic evaluation of large dams in Africa Luciano Raso, Jean-Claude Bader and Bruno Barbier Malawi’s vulnerability to threshold behavior of lake Malawi: informing adaptation decision making under uncertainty Ajay Bhave, Lauren Bulcock, Suraje Dessai, Graham Jewitt and Declan Conway Optimized dam portfolios reduce impacts of sediment trapping on the Mekong Delta under deeply uncertain future sediment yields Rafael Schmitt, Matteo Giuliani, Simone Bizzi, G. Mathias Kondolf and Andrea F. Castelletti San Francisco Water: piloting adaptation pathways for long-term water supply planning Dana Stuparu, Marjolijn Haasnoot, Willem van Deursen and Alexis Dufour Uncertainty and evidence-based water policy management in South Africa: the challenge for evaluation Sandile Ngcamphalala, Olivier Crespo and Johann Louw Developing a robust water strategy for Monterey, Mexico: diversification and adaptation for coping with climate, economic and technological uncertainties Edmundo Molina Perez, David Groves, Steven Popper, Rodrigo Crespo and Aldo Ramirez |
| Breakout 2B: DMDU approaches to technology assessment and planning Chair: Edmundo Molina Perez Strategic decision making in the 3D printing industry – a Robust Decision Making (RDM) analysis Pedro Nascimento de Lima, Maria Isabel Wolf Motta Morandi and Daniel Pacheco Lacerda Understanding the need for policy action on greenhouse gas removal to address climate change: initial case for Robust Decision Making Mark Workman, James Maltby and Geoff Darch Lithium-based transportation system-of-systems: Complexity and uncertainty of socio-environmental impacts Datu Buyung Agusdinata and Wenjuan Liu DMDU in a modern risk society: Roles of resilience-based public policy and emerging technologies/AI Mika Shimizu |
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| Breakout 2C: DMDU Ecosystems planning Chair: Ashley Hefner Dealing with deep uncertainty through exploratory modeling: regulating loggerhead sea turtle fishing by catch in Gulf of Ulloa, Mexico Daniela Pedroza, Luis Bojorquez-Tapia, Germán Ponce-Díaz, Francisco Arreguín and Antonio Diaz-De-Leon Avoiding fisheries collapse: Can robustness frameworks capture and navigate uncertain harvest trade-offs? Antonia Hadjimichael, Patrick Reed and Julianne Quinn Socio-ecological resilience modeling: Policy implications of drought effects in the wildlife management system in Baja California Sur, Mexico Hilda Zamora-Maldonado, Sophie Avila-Foucat, Víctor Sánchez-Sotomayor and Raymond Lee Considering uncertainty in multi-objective spatial prioritization for California’s agriculture, biodiversity and water resources Benjamin Bryant |
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| 14:45 | Break |
| II. DMDU Methodologies and Tools | |
| 15:15 | Keynote Speaker: Dr. John Seely Brown Former chief scientist of Xerox Corporation and director of Xerox’s Palo Alto Research Center (PARC); Current independent co-chairman of the Deloitte Center for the Edge |
| 15:30 | The role of monitoring, signposts and triggers in DMDU colloquium Chairs: Judy Lawrence and Robert Lempert This session will include four ten-minute talks on research papers, followed by a panel discussion lead by practitioners. Climate-induced tipping points: a typology and application of DMDU toolkit Kees C.H. van Ginkel and Marjolijn Haasnoot Designing a monitoring system to get signals for adaptation Marjolijn Haasnoot, Susan van ‘T Klooster, Dirk Eilander, Ferdinand Diermanse and Pieter Bloemen Identifying Triggers for Metropolitan Water District Adaptive Management Plan Dave Groves and Brandon Goshi Monitoring of dynamic adaptive policies: Design of a monitoring system by scenario discovery Luciano Raso, Jan Kwakkel and Jos Timmermans Panel Chair: Robert Lempert
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| 17:00 | End of Day 1 |
| 18:00 | Reception and Dinner hosted by Sony Pictures Studios Keynote Speaker: Hon. Thomas A. Small, Mayor of Culver City |
15 November 2018 – Workshop Day 2
| 08:00 | Registration and Breakfast |
| 08:30 | Breakout 3A: Explorations of system resiliency Chair: Costa Samaras Accelerated sea-level rise: a game changer for decision making under uncertainty? Marjolijn Haasnoot, Jaap Kwadijk and Jos van Alphen NZ coastal adaptation guidance: Interweaving uncertainty through sea level rise scenarios and hazard/risk assessments Rob Bell, Scott Stephens and Judy Lawrence How dynamic adaptive policies shape climate change mitigation trade-offs under uncertainty Giacomo Marangoni, Jonathan Lamontagne, Julianne Quinn, Patrick Reed, Massimo Tavoni and Klaus Keller Operationalizing resilience under deep uncertainty: Water supply for Mexico City and the Valley of Mexico Sarah Freeman, Casey Brown and Diego Rodriguez |
| Breakout 3B: Using DMDU methods to illuminate economic issues Chair: Steven Popper Assessing the prospects for public revenues from oil in Latin American and Caribbean countries under emerging climate policy Baltzar Solano-Rodriguez, Steve Pye and Adrien Vogt-Schilb Harmonizing Discretionary Policy Choice with Fiscal Rule Making: Mexico after Fiscal and Energy Sector Reforms Eduardo Márquez Peña How much is needed? Infrastructure investments for sustainable development Julie Rozenberg, Marianne Fay and Claire Nicolas |
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| Breakout 3C: Innovation in DMDU methods Chair: Julianne Quinn Participatory, simulation-driven scenario analysis for long-term decision-making Laura Schmitt Olabisi, Jing Du and Arika Ligmann-Zielinska A generalized many-objective optimization approach for scenario discovery Jan Kwakkel SPIRE – A decision support system for addressing complex/chaotic environments Harold Klein |
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| 10:00 | Break |
| 10:15 | Breakout 4A: New tools for DMDU analysis colloquium Chair: Jan Kwakkel Policy trees and threshold-based adaptation of water resources systems under climate change Jonathan Herman WaterPaths: A platform for discovering robust urban water portfolio investment pathways Bernardo Trindade, Patrick Reed, Harrison Zeff and Gregory Characklis An interdependent infrastructure systems planning tool to support strategic long-term, national-scale DMDU Lena Isabel Fuldauer, Scott Thacker, Daniel Adshead and Jim Hall Travel Model Improvement Program: exploratory modeling and analysis tool Martin Milkovits and Sarah Sun A new free web-based tool to support decision making under uncertainty Niels Riegels, Oluf Jessen, Silvia Leirao and Henrik Madsen* Colloquium will follow a three-part format: |
| Breakout 4B: Panel — The good, the bad, and the wicked: DMDU techniques in practice Chair: Laurna Kaatz • Alexis Dufour – San Francisco Public Utility Commission • Brandon Goshi – Metropolitan Water District of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA • Laurna Kaatz – Denver Water, Denver, CO |
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| Breakout 4C: Accounting for perspectives and behavior in DMDU Chair: James Dewar Experts’ decision-making model under deep uncertainty Matylda Gerber Building narratives to characterise uncertainty in regional climate change through expert elicitation Ajay Bhave, Suraje Dessai, Cathryn Birch, Declan Conway, Luis Garcia-Carreras, John Paul Gosling, Neha Mittal and David Stainforth Strategic Foresight, Deep Uncertainty, and Leadership: A Workshop Report Darryl Farber, Mathew Burrows and Martin Pietrucha |
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| 11:45 | Lunch and posters |
| III. ‘Mainstreaming’ DMDU Methods & Analyses in Policy Settings | |
| 13:00 | DMDU analyses and their relevance to policy decision makers Chair: Angela O’Mahony Panel discussion among DMDU analysts in the realms of national security, defense, and geopolitics |
| 14:00 | Breakout 5A: New approaches to DMDU decision support Chair: Marjolijn Haasnoot Hidden-model processes for adaptive management under climate change uncertainty Kelly Klima, Milad Memarzadeh and Matteo Pozzi Applying methods of DMDU to social-behavioral modeling for policy analysis Paul Davis The tail wagging the dog: Designing modelling tools to drive better decision processes Charlotte Brown, Garry McDonald, Erica Seville, Michele Daly, Nicola Smith and Rob Buxton Towards incorporating inclusiveness in model-based support for long-term adaptation planning under uncertainty Bramka Arga Jafino and Jan Kwakkel |
| Breakout 5B: Panel — DMDU guidance documents: Turning methods into practice Chair: Julie Rozenberg This session will consist of a brief introduction followed by several “speed talks” on how guidance addresses deep uncertainty and what it takes to mainstream these concepts. The audience will then form breakout groups to draft questions for panelists (20 minutes) followed by panel discussion of the questions. Introduction to the session Robert Lempert Sea Level Rise Guidance, New Zealand Judy Lawrence Hydropower Sector Climate Resilient Guidelines Patrick Ray California Climate Safe Infrastructure Working Group Juliette Hart Collaborative Risk Informed Decision Analysis guidelines John Kucharski Infrastructure Resilience Committee, American Society of Civil Engineers Costa Samaras |
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| 15:30 | DMDU implementation problem solving session: bring your problems for general discussion Chair: Judy Lawrence The session will begin with a brief framing on DMDU implementation with sharing of lessons. It will be followed with the format outlined below. Attendees are invited to place problems in DMDU implementation or stakeholder engagement on a designated board during the course of the meeting. 1) Several will be selected for speed-talks. 2) These will be followed by breakout roundtable discussions for each presented problem. 3) Following the roundtables, gather for plenary reports and discussion. |
| 17:00 | Closing Plenary and DMDU Society Business Meeting 2018 DMDU Elections, 2019 DMDU Annual Meeting Rob Lempert and Jan Kwakkel, DMDU Society; Steven Popper, Chair, Annual Meeting Organizing Committee |