Please find below the available materials from our 2017 Annual Meeting. The complete meeting program is here.
13 November – Training Day
09:30 | DMDU and overview of the day Who are we? stand-up introduction exercise |
10:00 | Interactive exercise: What is deep uncertainty and what does it mean in practice? |
11:00 | Break |
11:15 | Generalised framework for DMDU methods: A guide for the rest of the day |
12:15 | Lunch |
13:15 | Introductory demonstrations and applications Experiences with Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways – Marjolijn Haasnoot |
15:45 | Break |
16:00 | Substantive overview: Decision-making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice (Springer Verlag, forthcoming) Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty – A tentative taxonomy of approaches – Jan Kwakkel |
16:30 | Plenary panel and Q&A What is in the DMDU analyst’s tool kit? |
14 November – Workshop Day 1
09:30 | Welcome & introduction Prof Jim Hall, University of Oxford Robert Lempert, Director, RAND Corporation & Jan Kwakkel, Delft University of Technology |
09:40 | Global scale keynote address: Informing policy decision-making with Foresight methodologies Claire Craig, Director of Science Policy, Royal Society |
10:10 | Panel discussion including: Jerry Ravetz, Associate Fellow, James Martin Institute for Science & Civilisation, University of Oxford Angela Wilkinson, Senior Director, Scenarios & Insights, World Energy Council Klaus Keller, Professor of Geosciences, Penn State University Warren Walker, Professor of Policy Analysis, Delft University of Technology Bridging the Gap Between the Futures Field and Policymaking – Warren E. Walker An Arithmetical Language for Deep Uncertainty – Jerome Ravetz |
10:40 | Coffee |
11:10 | Problem-solving parallel interactive sessions National defence & security Jim Maltby, Defence & Security Analysis Division, Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (DSTL) Water, floods and coastal adaptation Judy Lawrence, Senior Research Fellow, Climate Change Research Institute, Victoria University of Wellington Water, floods and coastal adaptation – Practical application of DMDU methodologies – Pieter Bloemen, Jos van Alphen, Marjolijn Haasnoot Community Based Decision-Making for Climate Change Adaptation in Hawke’s Bay – Stephen Daysh, Graeme Hansen Long-range Integrated Planning at Denver Water – Laurna Kaatz Resilient South Florida: Challenges in addressing Deep Uncertainty – Jayantha Obeysekera A New, Collaborative Approach to Water Stewardship under Deep Uncertainty – Steve Moncaster, Geoff Darch |
12:30 | Lunch and posters |
14:00 | Perspectives from national and regional scales: Long-term planning in Small Islands Developing States under a changing climate Julie Rozenberg, Economist, World Bank Sustainable Development Group Integrated systems method – identification of policy options for a complex wicked problem Leena Ilmola Sheppard, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, (IIASA), Futures Committee of the Finnish Parliament |
15:00 | Break |
15:30 | Problem-solving interactive session Tempus Fugit: Time as a driver of uncertainty – Tina Comes, Bartel Van de Walle |
16:30 | Tools and models demonstration showcase E-rise – Ivan Haigh, University of Southampton Pumping Station Simulation & Testing (PSST) model – Jos Timmermans, Delft University of Technology Designing a signal system for timely adaptation – Marjolijn Haasnoot, Deltares Criticality and vulnerability assessment of the multi-modal transport network of Bangladesh – Jan Kwakkel, Delft University of Technology Project Platypus – A Collection of Libraries for Optimization, Data Analysis and Decision making – Julianne Quinn, Cornell University NISMOD-INT Platform – Scott Thacker, United Nations Office for Project Services (UNOPS) |
17:45 | Close of workshop day 1 |
15 November – Workshop Day 2
09:30 | City-scale keynote address Engineering options analysis for infrastructure decision-making Richard de Neufville, Prof of Engineering Systems, MIT Institute for Data, Systems, and Society |
10:00 | Panel discussion including: Felix Creutzig, Head, Land Use, Infrastructures & Transport, Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change Alex Harvey, Climate and Environment Adviser, UK Department for International Development (DFID), Africa Regional Department Alex Nickson, Thames Water Tim Reeder, Independent consultant, formerly of the UK’s Environment Agency |
10:20 | Problem-solving interactive session Adaptation by Design – a pathways approach for urban planning and spatial design Sadie McEvoy, Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology Taneha Kuzniecow-Bacchin, Delft University of Technology |
11:20 | Coffee |
11:40 | Parallel sessions Global and regional scales A large ensemble framework for consequence driven discovery of climate change scenarios Jonathan Lamontagne, Tufts University Uncertainty in epidemiological models of the Ebola epidemic Scott Janzwood, University of Waterloo Local Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty Mark Hughes, University of Pensylvania Managing uncertainty in water availability Henry Leveson-Gower, DefraNational and city scales Local interpretation of the shared socioeconomic pathways Jude Herijadi Kurniawan, University of Waterloo. Talk given by Vanessa Schweizer Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100: A challenge in meeting the uncertainties of long-term planning Giasuddin Choudhury, BDP2100 Bangladesh Certain to deeply uncertain: a decision-making teaser Judy Lawrence, Victoria University of Wellington Local and individual scales Configurational conditions that enable public sector organizations to take forward-looking decisions: An fs QCA analysis of municipal investment decisions in the Netherlands Pot Wieke, University of Wageningen Forest management under deep uncertainty – decision support vs. decision-making Roderich von Detten, University of Freiburg Minimising information needs: how does decision-making under deep uncertainty do it? Joseph Guillaume, Aalto University Does robust decision-making mirror thinking under uncertainty: how social science may help us understand the validity of DMDU approaches? Jim Maltby, Defence Science and Technology Laboratory |
13:20 | Lunch and posters There are two venues for lunch and posters, the Oxford Martin School and nearby Hertford College |
14:45 | Feedback from parallel sessions |
15:15 | Insights from the cutting edge of DMDU Role of scenarios in decision support under deep uncertainty: psychological evidence and anthropological possibilities Robert Lempert, Director, RAND Corporation, Frederick S. Pardee Center for Longer Range Global Policy & the Future Human Condition and Sara Turner, Pardee RAND Graduate School Transcending uncertainty Gwythian Prins, London School of Economics Morality, uncertainty and policy Yakov ben Haim, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, Technion |
16:45 | Reflections on workshop and plans for 2018 Robert Lempert, Director, RAND Corporation & Jan Kwakkel, Delft University of Technology |
17:15 | Workshop close |